At the National Press Club of Australia in Canberra, Defence Minister Richard Marles simultaneously unveiled the first ever “National Defence Strategy 2024” (NDS) plus the “Integrated Investment Program 2024” (IIP). The latter was the first release of the IIP since its last public iteration four years ago.
The NDS continues on from last year’s Defence Strategic Review, and gives the raison d’être for Australia’s major boost in defence capability. Meanwhile, the IIP lists in detail what will be procured in the next decade, alongside approximate monetary amounts.
Lots of money
The two documents projected that Australian defence expenditure will reach A$765 billion (€461.7 billion) over the coming decade. Indeed, by 2033-2034, the Antipodean country’s annual defence budget should surpass A$100 billion. This would achieve the government’s stated goal of reaching military spending levels of 2.4% of GDP.
The following breakdown from the IIP demonstrates just how exalted the maritime domain is in Australian thinking. Over the next ten years, the government will invest 38% of funds in maritime capabilities, 22% in enterprise and enabling (e.g. infrastructure), 16% in the land domain, 14% to air, 7% to cyber and 3% to space.
The NDS noted: “Delivering the strategy of denial requires credible Australian Defence Force (ADF) capabilities that will complicate the calculus of any potential adversary. The government will achieve this by increasing the range and lethality of the ADF, strengthening Australia’s national resilience and focusing Defence’s international engagement efforts on enhancing interoperability and collective deterrence.”
Bec Shrimpton, Director of Defence Strategy and National Security at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), told Naval News that the 97-page IIP “starts to fill in a genuine picture of what the future force is going to look like and what it’s going to do”.
Underwater investment
In terms of naval capabilities, IIP 2024 lists where money will be spent between now and 2034. Undersea warfare will garner projected spending of up to A$76 billion, which includes A$53-63 billion on nuclear-powered submarines and associated infrastructure. The document reaffirmed the importance of nuclear-powered submarines (SSN), with three Virginia-class boats to be acquired from the USA and an option for two more. The first is to be delivered in the early 2030s, before the trilaterally developed SSN-AUKUS built in South Australia is delivered in the early 2040s.
With such distant timelines, the Royal Australian Navy’s (RAN) six incumbent Collins-class submarines will be upgraded with funding of A$4-5 billion. Suitable infrastructure is also required for the SSNs, especially as the USA and UK deploy boats to Australia.
Significantly, on the day following the IIP’s launch, Minister for Defence Industry Pat Conroy announced that the Ghost Shark autonomous underwater vessel from Anduril Australia had been selected to provide the RAN with long-range autonomous undersea capabilities, including intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and strike missions.
Under a public-private partnership, Anduril and the Department of Defence have been cooperating on this Ghost Shark programme, and it will now become Mission 0 for the Advanced Strategic Capabilities Accelerator (ASCA) effort. That means it will receive part of the government’s A$7.2 billion commitment for development and acquisition of subsea and autonomous capabilities.
“Ghost Shark is an exemplar of how Defence and Australian industry can move at speed to develop new sovereign capabilities to respond to the challenges before us. By transitioning Ghost Shark to ASCA, a clear statement is being made about Defence’s commitment to the programme.”
Minister for Defence Industry Pat Conroy
Surface fleet
The IIP also stated that between A$51 billion and A$69 billion will be spent on surface warships over the next decade, eventually giving the navy 26 surface combatants to ensure sea denial in Australia’s northern approaches. This aligns with the “Enhanced Lethality Surface Combatant Fleet” review released on 20 February. It must be remembered, however, that surface warship numbers will soon dip to just nine, exposing a major capability gap at a time when many perceive the threat from China’s People’s Liberation Army to be greatest.
Indeed, the ADF’s looming capability gap is a serious issue since the majority of platforms listed in the IIP will not reach fruition quickly. Australia has been too slow, so this crisis is a culmination of poor planning, inadequate funding, incompetence on the part of the Department of Defence in some projects, and negligence from successive governments.
However, Shrimpton pointed out that one way to alleviate the capability gap is to turn to off-the-shelf and commercial solutions. “That’s not necessarily a bad thing. I think that your newer technologies in the small uncrewed, smart and attritable systems on land, air and sea are something we need to get after and, again, you can do that quite quickly.”
There are no changes from recommendations in the “Enhanced Lethality Surface Combatant Fleet” review, with the following listed:
- Three Hobart-class destroyers,
- six Hunter-class frigates,
- eleven general-purpose frigates,
- six Large Optionally Crewed Surface Vessels,
- six Arafura-class offshore patrol vessels,
- ten Evolved Cape-class patrol boats.
By mid-2025, the RAN will be flying 36 MH-60R helicopters too.
There are casualties, however, and one apparent problem is that the government has not revealed a complete list of what programmes are being cut or curtailed to fund higher-priority ones.
Joint Support Ships cancelled
However, the IIP does confirm cancellation of the anticipated acquisition of two 16,500-tonne Joint Support Ships under Project Sea 2200. Of course, this will leave just two Supply-class replenishment ships to support an enlarged fleet of 26 warships with the necessary fuel, water, ammunition and stores to keep them operational. Joint Support Ships would have helped move army assets overseas and support the RAN’s fleet. While army heavy landing craft may take up some of this slack, they cannot do so entirely.
Shrimpton of ASPI told Naval News:
“I think we’re starting to get the hint of, are we losing the coherence? So if you’re cutting those support ships, it’s a really key part of supporting that big, more muscular, more mobile navy, and a more mobile littoral army. So just from that example alone, the logic begins to look a little more fragile and this beautiful, integrated picture that you’re starting to get from the Integrated Investment Program doesn’t actually stack up.”
No MCM vessel replacement
Another victim is Project Sea 1905 Maritime Mine Countermeasures and Military Survey. This programme will be re-scoped to remove new mine countermeasure vessels, which were to be based on Arafura hulls. This comes as a further blow to Luerssen Australia. No replacement of Huon-class minesweepers is now foreseen, which means that fly-away AUV teams will have to conduct port clearance. However, this may presents difficulties for lead-through operations and the clearance of strategic waterways like the Torres Strait.
Weapons
The IIP gives some smaller details too. For example, existing Phalanx close-in weapon systems will be upgraded on the Hobart class and HMAS Choules, but they will not be fitted to the Canberra class as previously proposed. Next-generation Nulka decoys will also be fitted to Canberra, Anzac, Hobart and Hunter classes.
As for weaponry, Tomahawk missiles will arm the Hobart class, and their feasibility for the Hunter class will be conducted. Naval Strike Missiles will arm Hobart, Anzac and Hunter classes, and Aegis Baseline 9 will permit Hobart and Hunter warships to fire SM-2 and SM-6 air defence missiles. All up, sea-based strike missiles will cost A$12-15 billion. To protect its maritime approaches, Australia will also spend up to A$670 million on multi-sensor sea mines deployable from underwater vessels, ships and aircraft.
A whole chapter of the IIP is devoted to naval shipbuilding too. More details will emerge when the 2024 Naval Shipbuilding and Sustainment Plan is released later this year.
Amphibious army
In the next ten years, the Australian Army will continue transforming into a more amphibious and expeditionary force. Is the army becoming a marine corps? Shrimpton responded: “It definitely feels and looks like it is from a capability sense.” There is debate whether it should be a littoral force or a traditional land force, and she noted, “It’s being reshaped and this [plan] has actually got a lot on offer for army, but I keep going back to what historical conflict scenarios have we ever got to a point where we haven’t had boots on the ground significantly to conclude a crisis? So are we wilfully imagining this magic, light, mobile, manoeuvrable littoral force that operates forward and can fire missiles and keep people away?”
As part of its amphibious capacity, the Australian Army will possess a littoral manoeuvre group equipped with 18 landing craft medium and eight landing craft heavy to be delivered from 2026-37 and worth A$7-A$10 billion. These landing craft will be distributed across southeast and northern Queensland and Darwin. The IIP also lists up to 15 amphibious-capable support vehicles manufactured in Australia to replace the geriatric LARC-V inventory.
An updated IIP will now be published every two years.
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